Self-driving vehicles threaten to send truck drivers to the unemployment office. Computer programs can now write journalistic accounts of sporting events and stock price movements. There are even computers that can grade essay exams with reasonable accuracy, which could revolutionize my own job. Increasingly, machines are providing not only the brawn but the brains, too. And that raises the question of where humans fit into this picture ---who will prosper and who won’t in this new kind of machine economy?
Within five years we are likely to have the world’s best education, or close to it, online and free. But not everyone will sit down and go through the material without a professor pushing them to do the work.
Those who are motivated to use online resources will do much, much better in the generation to come. It’s already the case that the best students from India are at the top in many Coursera classes, putting America’s arguably less motivated bright young people to shame. “Free” doesn’t really help you if you don’t make an effort.
Your smartphone will record data on your life and, when asked, will tell you what to do, drawing on data from your home or from your spouse and friends if need be. “You’ve thrown out that bread the last three times you’ve bought it, give it a pass “will be a text message of the future. How about “Now is not the time to start another argument with your wife”? The GPS is just the beginning of computer-guided instruction. Take your smartphone on a date, and it might vibrate in your pocket to indicate “Kiss her now.”
If you hesitate for fear of being seen as pushy, it may write: “Who cares if you look bad? You are sampling optimally in the quest for a lifetime companion.” Those who won’t listen, or who rebel out of spite, will be missing out on glittering prizes. Those of us who listen, while often envied, may feel more like puppets with deflated pride.
A lot of jobs will consist of making people feel either very good or very bad about themselves. Coaches, mentors and disciplinarians will spread to many areas of life, at least for those of us who can stand to listen to them. These people will cajole us, flatter us and shame us into improving our lives, our work habits and our consumption. That’s why so many people go to yoga class instead of relying on the podcast. Managers who are motivators of first-rate talent will see their earnings continue to rise.
Computing and software will make it easier to measure performance and productivity.
It will be harder to gloss over our failings and maintain self-deception. In essence, everyone will suffer the fate of professional chess players, who will always know when they have lost a game, have an exact numerical rating for their overall performance, and find excuses for failure hard to come by.
Individuals will have many measures of their proficiency. They will have an incentive to disclose that information to get the better job or social opportunity. You will assume the worst about those who keep secrets, and so openness will reign. Many of us will hate the idea of Big Data.
